Qualifying weekend is here for the Indianapolis 500. Take stock of the items to follow as the two-day process to set the field of 33 with the primers below:
Chevy vs Honda
Every Indy 500 since the new 2.2-liter turbo V6 formula debuted in 2012 has presented us with an annual moratorium on which auto manufacturer has done a better job in finding horsepower, fuel economy, and reliability gains, and Fast Friday gave us a strong indicator on the power side of the three pillars.
Based on the no-tow speeds from yesterday, Team Chevy is the one to watch after Chevrolet-powered drivers placed first through sixth, with reigning 500 winner Josef Newgarden topping everyone with an unaided lap of 234.260mph for Team Penske through A.J. Foyt Racing’s Santino Ferrucci at 233.280mph.
Takuma Sato, first among the Honda drivers, was seventh at 233.139mph for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Arrow McLaren’s Callum Ilott was eighth for Chevy, and ninth through 12th were Andretti Global/Meyer Shank Racing Honda drivers.
Eleven of the top 16 drivers had Chevy motors. Of the bottom 18 drivers, 13 had Hondas. Separate from the best single-lap no-tow performances, Team Chevy also generated eight of the 10 best four-lap qualifying simulation averages, including P1-5.
The difference between Chevy’s best with Newgarden and Honda’s best with Sato was only 1.121mph, but it’s much larger than anyone expected. In 2023, Honda ended Fast Friday on top with a 0.563mph edge over the best Chevy and went on to snare the pole.
Never say never, but it would take some major miracles for Honda to turn the tables on Chevy in the run for P1 on Sunday. The question for Saturday is how many Hondas will make it into the top 12 and have a chance to vie for pole.
The draw will reveal all
The first handful of qualifying runs today will tell us everything there is to know about the Chevy vs Honda dynamic. Out first is Andretti’s Kyle Kirkwood, who was ninth on Friday’s no-tow, best among his teammates, and Honda’s second-best runner.
Out second is Penske’s Scott McLaughlin, who was second on Fast Friday for Chevy. Third up is Chip Ganassi Racing rookie Kyffin Simpson for Honda. And then it’s a wall of seven Chevy drivers with Ed Carpenter Racing’s Rinus VeeKay, Juncos Hollinger Racing’s Romain Grosjean, McLaren’s Kyle Larson, Grosjean’s teammate Agustin Canapino, McLaren’s Ilott, Penske’s Will Power and teammate Newgarden.
In the first 10 qualifying attempts, we’ll have three instant contenders for pole from Penske, a front-row savant in ECR’s VeeKay, a strong pairing from McLaren, and two midfield runners from JHR. Only Kirkwood, in the relatively cool settings in the early outings, will show what Honda has brought to the party.
The majority of Honda’s best hopes had poor qualifying draws and are set to make their first runs in the heat of the e arly afternoon as Meyer Shank’s Felix Rosenqvist (24th), Ganassi’s Alex Palou (25th) and Scott Dixon (27th) and Andretti’s Colton Herta (29th) are going long after they’d prefer.
The speeds put up by Chevy’s best early on Saturday could hold for most — if not all — of the day. Don’t be surprised if the late Honda runners return for Happy Hour attempts to improve their averages.
Where’s Ganassi?
The last three Indy 500 pole positions have gone to Chip Ganassi Racing (Scott Dixon 2021-22, Alex Palou 2023), but the team’s been missing from the sharp end of the speed charts. It’s only qualifying, so there’s no need for their fans to panic, but when rookie Marcus Armstrong is the team’s best heading into time trials with the 23rd-best no-tow lap, there’s clearly something adrift within the five-car camp.
Dixon and Palou (24th and 25th) still represent Ganassi’s best chances of breaking into the top 12, but when all five of its drivers are slotted between 23rd and 32nd with Simpson, it’s hard to ignore the surprising year-to-year fall off.