For the first time since 2021, the drivers’ championship is going down to at least the penultimate race of the season: McLaren’s Lando Norris can win the title at the Qatar Grand Prix.
Since the epic season that ended with Max Verstappen eventually winning his first world championship in a f inal race showdown with Lewis Hamilton, the championship has already been decided by this point for the past three years.
Verstappen has won on each occasion, securing the 2022 title in Japan with four rounds still to run, then wrapping up the 2023 championship a race earlier, when Qatar held an October slot. Last year’s championship was decided in Verstappen’s favor in Las Vegas, with Norris the last driver in the running on that occasion.
This time around, Norris leads teammate Oscar Piastri and Verstappen by 24 points arriving in Qatar. Lusail hosts a Sprint weekend once again, meaning there is a total of 33 points on the table, and Norris needs to only outscore his two rivals by two points over the weekend – or one point if he wins Sunday’s grand prix – with a further 25 points up for grabs in Abu Dhabi.
A top seven finish in the Sprint will allow Norris to guarantee the championship with victory in the main race, regardless of where Piastri and Verstappen are placed.
The grand prix win is crucial, as it will mean that in the event of a tie on points, Norris cannot be beaten on countback by either driver. He would be guaranteed more wins than Verstappen over the course of the season, and even if Piastri tied his number of victories at the end of the year, Norris would be champion by virtue of having more second-place finishes.
For the chasing pair, the equation is also simple: They must not lose more than one point to Norris over the race weekend, or any points if he wins on Sunday.
The Sprint format means Norris could take 25 points for victory, but if he fails to score in the Sprint and Piastri or Verstappen combine a Sprint top two – first is worth eight points, second worth seven – with second place in the grand prix, worth 18 points, they will either match his tally, or outscore him by a point.
