For the first time in 15 years, Formula 1 has a title decider that features more than two drivers, as Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri will fight for the championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
While Norris had a chance to wrap up his first title in Qatar, his fourth place coupled with Verstappen’s victory and Piastri finishing second has left the trio covered by just 16 points, with 25 on offer at Yas Marina Circuit.
Norris remains the clear favorite for the championship as he currently holds a 12-point advantage over Verstappen, and that means he can guarantee the title is his with a podium finish, regardless of what his other two opponents manage to achieve. Beyond that simple equation, it’s most straightforward to focus on what his rivals have to do to have a chance of stopping him.
For Verstappen, a top-three finish is imperative. Fourth is not enough for him to become champion because even if he ties with Norris (fourth place pays 12 points) he would lose out on countback based on second-place finishes.
So for Verstappen to become champion, he needs:
- If Verstappen wins the race, Norris no higher than fourth
- If Verstappen finishes second, Norris no higher than eighth, Piastri not winning
- If Verstappen finishes third, Norris no higher than ninth, Piastri not winning
For Piastri, the task is even taller, and he must finish in the top two to have an opportunity of becoming champion, given his 16-point deficit to Norris.
For Piastri to win the title, he needs:
- If Piastri wins the race, Norris no higher than sixth
Piastri will automatically be eliminated if Norris finishes in the top five, but Norris could finish fifth or fourth to beat Piastri and still lose out to Verstappen if the Dutchman wins the race.
