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Where Cadillac fits into silly season

After so many permutations a year ago, 2025 was supposed to be a quiet year on the driver market front.

Lewis Hamilton kicked off silly season before the previous campaign had even started with his move from Mercedes to Ferrari, and then there was the focus on Max Verstappen and Red Bull before Carlos Sainz sorted his future. And over the course of the year, six rookies were added to the grid.

All of that movement, and the knock-on impact of the majority of drivers having multi-year deals to carry them into 2026, should have meant Cadillac almost had free reign when it came to trying to pick its first driver lineup ahead of its debut next year. That allowed the TWG Motorsports-run team plenty of time and space to weigh up its options.

But there is currently more uncertainty than expected when it comes to a number of seats, and many of them could end up being linked. It all starts, of course, with Verstappen. If he were to decide to leave a Red Bull team that appears to be in decline – a slide that was probably a significant part of the reason for Christian Horner’s removal a fortnight ago – then it appears Mercedes would be his most likely destination, with talk of a future switch to Aston Martin having quietened in recent months.

The overriding impression has been that, while a move at the end of this season is not out of the question, it is after 2026 that is more likely, when Verstappen can have certainty in the respective competitive levels across the grid. Right now, despite confidence in the Mercedes power unit project, it is still a guessing game.

Verstappen’s potential availability in 18 months’ time still has a major impact on the market, though, with any suitors wanting flexibility to be able to make a move. If we focus on Mercedes to that end, it would mean not locking in either George Russell or Kimi Antonelli beyond the end of next season.

At this stage, they’re also not confirmed beyond the current campaign, although you would imagine Mercedes has options on Antonelli as it invested in the talented rookie’s future. But Russell will not be overly keen to sign a deal that opens the door for him to be replaced in a year’s time if Verstappen does jump ship.

Outside of the Red Bull-owned teams, the other vacancy for next season is alongside Pierre Gasly at Alpine, and given that will become a Mercedes-powered team, there are links to Toto Wolff’s outfit that could potentially have driver influence, too.

For example, if Mercedes were to get Verstappen, then either of its current drivers would be attractive to Alpine, and Antonelli could be loaned – with an agreement reached based on power unit costs – so that the Italian could be brought back into the fold in future.

Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez are eyeing F1 returns with Cadillac. Carl Bingham/Getty Images

It’s hypothetical for now, but in such a scenario then there would be two young drivers with recent F1 experience – Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan – who might also factor into Cadillac’s thinking.

While Russell remains without a contract for next year, too, then there’s always the slight possibility that he could hit the open market, and he would clearly be attractive to Cadillac. But he would also draw interest from other teams who were not expecting him to be available, that could potentially lead to further movement.

At this stage, I’ve got to clearly caveat the fact that all of the above is speculative, and the most likely situation is that the Mercedes lineup remains unchanged, Verstappen sticks with Red Bull for one more year, and it’s only Alpine and the Red Bull seats that need confirming. But given there are potential different outcomes in play involving a four-time world champion and a multiple race winner, it slightly clouds the market.

And that means Cadillac could even look to take more time when it comes to finalizing its lineup.

Talks have been held with a number of drivers with F1 experience, and Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas appear top of the list to be at least one of the two that get to drive for Cadillac next season. But suggestions that deals are already agreed are premature, with sources indicating there have been no detailed discussions about contract lengths and terms with either driver.

That could move more quickly as we head into the summer break, but as we have seen in the past it tends to be the front-running teams who get to make their decisions first before those further down the order come into play. It worked particularly well for Williams last year, with Sainz becoming available due to the Hamilton move, and both Mercedes and Red Bull opting against chasing the Spaniard.

Other teams could well hold an interest in Perez and Bottas, too, but as highlighted above there are few that can offer a seat in 2026 unless there is significant movement triggered by Verstappen, so Cadillac doesn’t have to rush to sign them. Both are understood to be keen on the project, and no doubt so are all of the younger options – including Jak Crawford, Zhou Guanyu, Mick Schumacher, Felipe Drugovich, and Fred Vesti – who are looking for their first chances or a return to the grid.

There are a huge number of items on the Cadillac job list, and if it wants to then the driver pairing can actually remain one of its lower priorities until there is more certainty at Mercedes and Red Bull. The latter team could even release another experienced option depending on the direction it takes alongside Verstappen – should he stay – in 2026, and at Racing Bulls, too.

Although team principal Graeme Lowdon rued being outside the cycle of driver negotiations last year – when Cadillac didn’t have a confirmed entry – it currently has a strong pool of talent it can pick from, whether it would ultimately prefer two experienced drivers or to pair one with a younger option.

There’s nothing to say a lineup won’t be firmed up in the very near future, but if not, that pool is only likely to become even deeper the longer the American team waits.